The US Job Myth
Every election I hear both parties sing Creating Jobs that always bothers me because I am more of spreadsheet and chart guy.
I don't think Creating Job can really solve the Jobless problem, today's capital economy and job situation are not same as post war.
manufacture and agriculture industries are totally changed by Automate production and global cost-cutting trade system. of course, many parents want their kids to go to college, hopefully their kids fight for good job, but other parents and their kids are competitive too, the pie gets smaller and smaller and kids grow tougher and smarter, but after they finish their college or higher degree there still won't be enough jobs for most of them. the jobs are going aboard, won't come back, the material and labor cost are just too cheap in Asia and Africa. the jobs replaced by robotic tech will continue run by robots and more cheaper better robots are on the way.
I am afraid of our politicians need to be practical, go do simple research about our job industry and economy structure, use their spreadsheet and charts to understand Creating Job Solving Everything is Truly a Myth.
I did a quick research and spreadsheet by following online resources, I hope my formulas and numbers are wrong. But it looks logical.
the Income column is my guess.
the job industry info from Bureau of US Labor Statics
the US population is from US Census
the rest are easy, just simple math.
my result of current jobless rate btwn age 18-65 is
11%
Federal 20 million employees
Military 2 million personals
In prison 4 millions (included as jobless)
Add Federal, Military and Incarcerated to jobless because the position does not help grow economy, that's
20%.
the current unemployment rate from Dept of Labor is
5%.
There are
5-6% (5-6 millions) Americans live on foraging, live off the land I guess.
Most of the industry jobs are below $50000 income,
birthrate remain the same so that's 2 kiddos per couple,
Most working people are below poverty line.
Most of Americans should get food stamps, medicaid and tuition aid for middle class too. Scary.
Job Income % Pie chart:
jobs income above $70000 are 15%
jobs income around $50000 are 33%
jobs income below $50000 are 52% (60% if Federal and Military are included)
US Educational Attainment 2014 link
Master degree above: 15%
Some College: 45%
Non-College: 40% (include HS graduate and drop out)
Result Pie Chart:
Masters and Doctorates suppose to get the top 15% jobs (income 70K), but those jobs are in mining (0.56% of all Industry), manufacturing (8.10% with 14.86% Growth decrease), information (1.82% with 12.14% Growth decrease), and Finance(5.3% with 1.55% Growth decrease)
People with some college degree are 45% competing for jobs (income 50K) with masters and doctorates.
Jobs income below 50k are 52% of the pie for 45% some college degree holders, 40% HS graduate and drop out.
The economy system is built
60% jobs are below 50k, that's under the poverty line that can't support house and a kid
30% jobs are good 50k middle class jobs that can afford traditional family value financially
10% jobs are for top of class 70k, highly educated career people with heavy student debt
High Education is not the solution to solve the job problem, only creates more social unrest if 50% or more are highly educated fighting for 15% high pay jobs, especially Agriculture, and Manufacturing were major job posts now all replaced by robots and global low-cost market.
From 2004 to 2014, US job growth is only 5%.
Educational attainment in the United States (2014)[3]
| Education | Age 25 and over | Age 25-29 |
|---|
| High school diploma | 88.31% | 90.83% |
| Some college | 58.57% | 64.31% |
| Associate and/or bachelor's degree | 41.89% | 44.08% |
| Bachelor's degree | 31.96% | 34.04% |
| Master's and/or doctorate and/or professional degree | 11.77% | 7.57% |
| Doctorate and/or professional degree | 3.27% | 1.70% |
| Doctorate | 1.77% | 0.89% |
Resources:
Bureau of Labor Stats
number of college graduates per year
census
birthrate
National Institute of Retirement Security
